TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104120
Played Sep 10Finished
Kamil Delikatny
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117113––––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Delikatny above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Delikatny 2–2 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Baran beat Delikatny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Delikatny 1351 vs Baran 1386
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Delikatny 40% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Delikatny 40% vs Baran 60%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Delikatny -1 · Baran -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDelikatny 2.20 / Baran 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Baran)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13104120
Delikatny2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 49 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Baran1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 38 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDelikatny2wins
AwayBaran2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDelikatny50%2 of 4
AwayBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Delikatny4Baran0n = 4Delikatny took 4 of 4
S2Delikatny2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S3Delikatny1Baran3n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S4Delikatny1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDelikatnyBaranD − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.037.8−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDelikatnyBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 483 vs 61 / 11048%55.5%232 / 483 vs 61 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranDelikatny 2.20/Baran 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Delikatny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny—1111113M. Baran—8730
LSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny—1110151M. Baran—81211113
WAug 6 · 01:10K. Delikatny—111196113M. Baran—66111182
LAug 5 · 17:30K. Delikatny—12731172M. Baran—1011116113
K. Delikatny10
LSep 10 · 01:45K. Delikatny1.9111118572M. Lewczuk1.80961111113LSep 9 · 23:20K. Delikatny2.2011761192A. Zmijewski1.61811117113WSep 9 · 22:10A. Barton2.6311118862K. Delikatny1.44671111113WSep 9 · 21:20K. Delikatny2.50911117113A. Fomin1.5011461162LSep 9 · 19:40K. Delikatny1.44411111352A. Skupinski2.63115915113LSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.381115113A. Zmijewski1.5371390WSep 9 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.836680K. Delikatny1.831111113LSep 9 · 15:25K. Delikatny2.6311119652A. Fomin1.44861111113LSep 9 · 04:40K. Delikatny1.584101191A. Barton2.2511129113
M. Baran10
LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141LSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111WSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113WSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102LSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231
Upcoming Matches
K. Delikatny
Nothing scheduled
M. Baran
Sep 10 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——Sep 10 · 18:10M. Baran—A. Staniczek——Sep 10 · 18:55M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 19:40M. Baran—J. Cyndera——Sep 10 · 21:00M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——Sep 10 · 22:10M. Baran—J. Cyndera——Sep 10 · 23:45M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 11 · 01:00M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 11 · 02:35M. Baran—A. Staniczek——
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