TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103822
Played Sep 9Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012116411––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 74 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 5–2 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Baran beat Fomin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Baran
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1422 vs Fomin 1459
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 80% vs Fomin 60%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 60% vs Fomin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +1 · Fomin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.10 / Fomin 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Fomin)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13103822
Baran2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Fomin1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 280 of 392
Up 2–0, closes it98% 157 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it89% 220 of 248
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBaran5wins
AwayFomin2wins
5 of 7 to a deciderBaran leads 5–2, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaran100%5 of 5
AwayFominn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran5Fomin2n = 7Baran took 5 of 7
S2Baran4Fomin3n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
S3Baran3Fomin4n = 7Fomin took 4 of 7
S4Baran2Fomin4n = 6Fomin took 4 of 6
S5Baran4Fomin1n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricBaranFominB − FBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match44.343.7+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranFominBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 107 vs 517 / 88857%58.2%61 / 107 vs 517 / 888Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominBaran 2.10/Fomin 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran—114118123A. Fomin—711611102
WAug 27 · 05:05M. Baran—1191212113A. Fomin—911141082
LAug 26 · 20:45M. Baran—71191272A. Fomin—1171110113
WAug 1 · 22:35M. Baran—1111711113A. Fomin—77111392
WAug 1 · 15:00M. Baran—1111123A. Fomin—89100
LJul 19 · 24:10M. Baran—711791A. Fomin—11811113
WJul 18 · 20:30M. Baran—114117113A. Fomin—91141192
M. Baran10
LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143WSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113WSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102LSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231
A. Fomin10
LSep 9 · 21:20K. Delikatny2.50911117113A. Fomin1.5011461162WSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143WSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91115711113A. Zmijewski1.8091111792WSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102WSep 9 · 15:25K. Delikatny2.6311119652A. Fomin1.44861111113LSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182WSep 6 · 24:00A. Fomin1.5491311113K. Gudzik2.251111891LSep 5 · 22:25A. Fomin1.8711621192A. Krezel1.80511117113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Fomin
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