TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102793
Played Sep 9Finished
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111171113––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 81 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 72.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 1–9 Andriej Fomin Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-9 in 10
Fomin
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1215 vs Fomin 1456
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 240 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 30% vs Fomin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski -1 · Fomin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 3.00 / Fomin 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Fomin)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13102793
Skupinski3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Fomin1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 280 of 392
Up 2–0, closes it98% 157 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it89% 220 of 248
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkupinski1wins
AwayFomin9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkupinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFomin100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skupinski2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S2Skupinski5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S3Skupinski4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Skupinski3Fomin6n = 9Fomin took 6 of 9
S5Skupinski1Fomin4n = 5Fomin took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkupinskiFominS − FBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.145.7−6.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 409 vs 514 / 88439.1%58.1%160 / 409 vs 514 / 884Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominSkupinski 3.00/Fomin 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Skupinski—145116113A. Fomin—121181192
LJun 15 · 08:50A. Skupinski—31191182A. Fomin—118119113
LJun 8 · 05:35A. Skupinski—11917101A. Fomin—131115123
LMay 18 · 06:25A. Skupinski—11771152A. Fomin—511116113
LMar 23 · 07:45A. Skupinski—917681A. Fomin—111511113
LDec 22 · 07:25A. Skupinski—81111972A. Fomin—117911113
LOct 27 · 07:25A. Skupinski—7790A. Fomin—1111113
LOct 13 · 08:00A. Skupinski—511971A. Fomin—11811113
LOct 6 · 04:00A. Skupinski—58111152A. Fomin—111189113
LSep 22 · 06:25A. Skupinski—811951A. Fomin—11711113
A. Skupinski10
LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113LSep 2 · 15:50J. Zelezik1.14414811113A. Skupinski5.00111211382WAug 26 · 19:40Z. Nocun1.50911781A. Skupinski2.5011711113LAug 26 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.251111113A. Skupinski3.757380LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski1.7310139101A. Krezel2.00121111123
A. Fomin10
LSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102WSep 9 · 15:25K. Delikatny2.6311119652A. Fomin1.44861111113LSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182WSep 6 · 24:00A. Fomin1.5491311113K. Gudzik2.251111891LSep 5 · 22:25A. Fomin1.8711621192A. Krezel1.80511117113LSep 5 · 21:10A. Fomin2.7561090J. Oracz1.401112113WSep 5 · 20:00A. Krezel1.907830A. Fomin1.801111113LSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.761511113A. Fomin1.9513690LSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113
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