TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104704
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.17
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
131112101210––––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 68 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 59.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 1–1 Artur Zmijewski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zmijewski beat Baran 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baran 1392 vs Zmijewski 1425
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 20% vs Zmijewski 60%
Zmijewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 50% vs Zmijewski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -3 · Zmijewski -1
Baran
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (20%) is below what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.17 / Zmijewski 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Zmijewski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13104704
Baran2.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Zmijewski1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 50 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaran1wins
AwayZmijewski1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBaranZmijewskiB − ZBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.036.00.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 111 vs 70 / 12055.9%58.3%62 / 111 vs 70 / 120Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiBaran 2.17/Zmijewski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran—1312123A. Zmijewski—1110100
LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran—5711121A. Zmijewski—11115143
M. Baran10
LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141LSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143WSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113WSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102LSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113
A. Zmijewski10
LSep 10 · 01:25A. Fomin1.9111135113A. Zmijewski1.809111151WSep 9 · 23:20K. Delikatny2.2011761192A. Zmijewski1.61811117113LSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392WSep 9 · 21:00A. Barton5.504330A. Zmijewski1.131111113WSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143LSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91115711113A. Zmijewski1.8091111792LSep 9 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.381115113A. Zmijewski1.5371390WSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113LSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171WSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
Sep 10 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——Sep 10 · 18:10M. Baran—A. Staniczek——Sep 10 · 18:55M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 19:40M. Baran—J. Cyndera——Sep 10 · 21:00M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——Sep 10 · 22:10M. Baran—J. Cyndera——Sep 10 · 23:45M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 11 · 01:00M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 11 · 02:35M. Baran—A. Staniczek——
A. Zmijewski
Nothing scheduled
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