TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103481
Played Sep 10Finished
Andriej Fomin
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191311511115––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:27 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndriej Fomin above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 54.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Andriej Fomin 6–3 Artur Zmijewski Artur Zmijewski has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Fomin beat Zmijewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:27What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Fomin
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1485 vs Zmijewski 1452
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 80% vs Zmijewski 60%
Fomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 70% vs Zmijewski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin +2 · Zmijewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zmijewski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 1.91 / Zmijewski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zmijewski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13103481
Fomin1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 70 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back34% 27 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Zmijewski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 50 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeFomin6wins
AwayZmijewski3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderFomin leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFomin80%4 of 5
AwayZmijewski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin5Zmijewski4n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S2Fomin3Zmijewski6n = 9Zmijewski took 6 of 9
S3Fomin5Zmijewski4n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S4Fomin5Zmijewski3n = 8Fomin took 5 of 8
S5Fomin3Zmijewski1n = 4Fomin took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricFominZmijewskiF − ZBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match41.140.7+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime519 / 890 vs 70 / 11858.3%59.3%519 / 890 vs 70 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiFomin 1.91/Zmijewski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin—115711113A. Zmijewski—91111792
WSep 2 · 21:20A. Fomin—141136113A. Zmijewski—128111192
LSep 2 · 15:25A. Fomin—8860A. Zmijewski—1111113
WAug 21 · 24:20A. Fomin—91111113A. Zmijewski—115671
LAug 20 · 20:20A. Fomin—1281271A. Zmijewski—141110113
WAug 8 · 23:10A. Fomin—11111011113A. Zmijewski—71312972
LAug 8 · 17:10A. Fomin—11911952A. Zmijewski—711811113
WAug 5 · 21:18A. Fomin—21111123A. Zmijewski—1153101
WAug 5 · 15:25A. Fomin—11911113A. Zmijewski—611991
A. Fomin10
WSep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.003590A. Fomin1.731111113WSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113LSep 9 · 21:20K. Delikatny2.50911117113A. Fomin1.5011461162WSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143WSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91115711113A. Zmijewski1.8091111792WSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102WSep 9 · 15:25K. Delikatny2.6311119652A. Fomin1.44861111113LSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 9 · 23:20K. Delikatny2.2011761192A. Zmijewski1.61811117113LSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392WSep 9 · 21:00A. Barton5.504330A. Zmijewski1.131111113LSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91115711113A. Zmijewski1.8091111792LSep 9 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.381115113A. Zmijewski1.5371390WSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113LSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171WSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102
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