TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104124
Played Sep 10Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511911––––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 50 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 12–12 Andriej Fomin Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Fomin beat Lewczuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1447 vs Fomin 1506
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Fomin 80%
Fomin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Fomin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fomin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.00 / Fomin 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fomin)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13104124
Lewczuk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 62 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 74
Fomin1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 280 of 392
Up 2–0, closes it98% 157 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it89% 220 of 248
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk4wins
AwayFomin6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk33.3%2 of 6
AwayFomin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Fomin4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S3Lewczuk4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk1Fomin6n = 7Fomin took 6 of 7
S5Lewczuk2Fomin1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukFominL − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.040.0−3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukFominBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 958 vs 520 / 89151.4%58.4%492 / 958 vs 520 / 891Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominLewczuk 2.00/Fomin 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—3590A. Fomin—1111113
LSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk—11810121A. Fomin—91112143
WSep 3 · 01:45M. Lewczuk—1113113A. Fomin—51170
LSep 2 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—1291210112A. Fomin—10111012133
WAug 31 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—811912113A. Fomin—118111092
WAug 28 · 05:05M. Lewczuk—1112113A. Fomin—51040
LAug 25 · 24:30M. Lewczuk—613731A. Fomin—111111113
LAug 24 · 18:55M. Lewczuk—1171111A. Fomin—81113113
LAug 21 · 03:05M. Lewczuk—118921A. Fomin—91111113
WAug 20 · 21:05M. Lewczuk—811118113A. Fomin—11861192
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 10 · 01:45K. Delikatny1.9111118572M. Lewczuk1.80961111113WSep 10 · 01:00A. Barton7.509420M. Lewczuk1.071111113WSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392LSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143WSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113LSep 9 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.836680K. Delikatny1.831111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171LSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113
A. Fomin10
WSep 10 · 01:25A. Fomin1.9111135113A. Zmijewski1.809111151WSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113LSep 9 · 21:20K. Delikatny2.50911117113A. Fomin1.5011461162WSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143WSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91115711113A. Zmijewski1.8091111792WSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102WSep 9 · 15:25K. Delikatny2.6311119652A. Fomin1.44861111113LSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182
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A. Fomin
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