TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105070
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911911––––
Jakub Cyndera
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Cyndera to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Jakub Cyndera below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Cyndera at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–1 Jakub Cyndera Jakub Cyndera has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Baran beat Cyndera 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cyndera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1365 vs Cyndera 1452
Cyndera
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 20% vs Cyndera 80%
Cyndera
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 30% vs Cyndera 70%
Cyndera
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -1 · Cyndera +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cyndera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyndera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.91 / Cyndera 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cyndera)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13105070
Baran1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 22 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back31% 10 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Cyndera1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 134 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it99% 77 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it90% 103 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayCyndera1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBaran leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran1Cyndera2n = 3Cyndera took 2 of 3
S2Baran1Cyndera2n = 3Cyndera took 2 of 3
S3Baran2Cyndera1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S4Baran2Cyndera1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBaranCynderaB − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.043.3−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranCynderaBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 117 vs 319 / 57154.7%55.9%64 / 117 vs 319 / 571Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CynderaBaran 1.91/Cyndera 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cyndera · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cyndera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 10 · 19:40M. Baran—121111113J. Cyndera—1013981
LAug 31 · 23:35M. Baran—981231J. Cyndera—111110113
WAug 31 · 15:10M. Baran—1111511113J. Cyndera—13611982
M. Baran10
LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141LSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113
J. Cyndera10
WSep 10 · 21:20J. Cyndera1.36811113113A. Staniczek3.0011591192LSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113WSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850WSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 16:15K. Gudzik1.918111411222J. Cyndera1.80114163243WSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110LSep 1 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.39101111562J. Zelezik1.49128611113LSep 1 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.46211721M. Machelski2.4711711113WAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231WAug 31 · 22:25A. Barton4.7571050J. Cyndera1.141112113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.