TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105072
Played Sep 10Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611115711119118
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 59.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 1–1 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1399 vs Baran 1388
Gudzik
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 40% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 50% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik +1 · Baran -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 1.91 / Baran 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baran)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13105072
Gudzik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 13 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Baran1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 39 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGudzik1wins
AwayBaran1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGudzikBaranG − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.037.5+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 93 vs 63 / 11451.6%55.3%48 / 93 vs 63 / 114Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.340.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranGudzik 1.91/Baran 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 10 · 24:35K. Gudzik—11811113M. Baran—611381
LAug 9 · 18:30K. Gudzik—11411782M. Baran—611811113
K. Gudzik10
WSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571LSep 10 · 16:15K. Gudzik1.918111411222J. Cyndera1.80114163243LSep 10 · 15:00K. Gudzik2.638770M. Lewczuk1.441111113LSep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek2.4611112113K. Gudzik1.44751171WSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111LSep 10 · 02:40M. Warzecha1.47111145113K. Gudzik2.5066111182LSep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.85911911113K. Gudzik1.8011311792WSep 9 · 23:55W. Stechly4.354650K. Gudzik1.151111113WSep 9 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.5271170K. Gudzik2.371113113WSep 9 · 21:55K. Gudzik1.85136119113J. Skorupa1.85111161142
M. Baran10
WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141LSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143
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