TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105073
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111012117411––
Adam Staniczek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 74 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–2 Adam Staniczek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1406 vs Staniczek 1208
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 198 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Staniczek 20%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 50% vs Staniczek 10%
Baran
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -1 · Staniczek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.50 / Staniczek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Baran)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13105073
Baran1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 39 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Staniczek2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog26% won 116 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back11% 32 of 288
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayStaniczek2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran2Staniczek2n = 4split evenly
S2Baran1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
S3Baran3Staniczek1n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S4Baran2Staniczek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricBaranStaniczekB − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.546.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 113 vs 363 / 101155.8%35.9%63 / 113 vs 363 / 1011Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match40.333.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBaran 1.50/Staniczek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 1 · 01:35M. Baran—13111111113A. Staniczek—15135852
LAug 31 · 16:50M. Baran—119871A. Staniczek—91111113
WAug 9 · 22:10M. Baran—11415123A. Staniczek—81113101
LAug 9 · 19:40M. Baran—81213652A. Staniczek—11101111113
M. Baran10
LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141LSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143WSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113
A. Staniczek10
LSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110WSep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek2.4611112113K. Gudzik1.44751171LSep 10 · 03:20A. Staniczek3.608640M. Warzecha1.221111113LSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123LSep 10 · 24:45A. Staniczek1.7181511171W. Stechly2.0211178193LSep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.423930J. Skorupa1.461111113LSep 9 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.581211113A. Staniczek2.2510850LSep 9 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.2391117113A. Staniczek3.451191581LSep 9 · 20:45A. Staniczek2.5011138672K. Gudzik1.478111111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
A. Staniczek
Sep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50M. Lewczuk1.28—Sep 10 · 20:30A. Staniczek2.50K. Gudzik1.50—Sep 10 · 21:20A. Staniczek3.00J. Cyndera1.36—Sep 10 · 22:55A. Staniczek2.75Z. Nocun1.40—Sep 11 · 24:10A. Staniczek2.63K. Gudzik1.44—Sep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.50M. Lewczuk1.28—Sep 11 · 02:35A. Staniczek2.50M. Baran1.50—
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