TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104854
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611411––––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 48 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 58.2%
48 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–1 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Lewczuk beat Baran 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1382 vs Lewczuk 1480
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Lewczuk 80%
Lewczuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 40% vs Lewczuk 70%
Lewczuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +1 · Lewczuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.80 / Lewczuk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lewczuk)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13104854
Baran1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 39 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Lewczuk1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 64 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayLewczuk1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderBaran leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran1Lewczuk2n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
S2Baran1Lewczuk2n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
S3Baran2Lewczuk1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S4Baran3Lewczuk0n = 3Baran took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBaranLewczukB − LBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match47.742.3+5.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 116 vs 492 / 95955.2%51.3%64 / 116 vs 492 / 959Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukBaran 1.80/Lewczuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran—89111492M. Lewczuk—1111512113
WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran—11811133M. Lewczuk—1119111
WSep 9 · 17:45M. Baran—911711113M. Lewczuk—11811962
M. Baran10
WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141LSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133WSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113LSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:00K. Gudzik2.638770M. Lewczuk1.441111113WSep 10 · 01:45K. Delikatny1.9111118572M. Lewczuk1.80961111113WSep 10 · 01:00A. Barton7.509420M. Lewczuk1.071111113LSep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.003590A. Fomin1.731111113WSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392LSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111
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