TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109478
Played Sep 10Finished
Jakub Cyndera
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811115119311119
Adam Staniczek
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Cyndera to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Cyndera above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Cyndera at 67.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Cyndera 38–15 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 15 of their 53 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Cyndera beat Staniczek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cyndera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-15 in 53
Cyndera
Correct
gap of 23 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyndera 1442 vs Staniczek 1216
Cyndera
Correct
both rated, 226 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyndera 80% vs Staniczek 20%
Cyndera
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyndera 70% vs Staniczek 20%
Cyndera
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyndera -1 · Staniczek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Cyndera) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyndera 1.36 / Staniczek 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Cyndera)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13109478
Cyndera1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 134 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it99% 77 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it90% 103 of 115
Staniczek3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog26% won 116 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back11% 32 of 288
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCyndera7wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCyndera leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyndera77.8%7 of 9
AwayStaniczekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyndera9Staniczek1n = 10Cyndera took 9 of 10
S2Cyndera8Staniczek2n = 10Cyndera took 8 of 10
S3Cyndera7Staniczek3n = 10Cyndera took 7 of 10
S4Cyndera1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCynderaStaniczekC − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match34.627.2+7.4per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCynderaStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 570 vs 364 / 101455.8%35.9%318 / 570 vs 364 / 1014Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.033.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CynderaCyndera 1.36/Staniczek 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Cyndera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cyndera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera—1111133A. Staniczek—55110
WAug 31 · 21:35J. Cyndera—1111113A. Staniczek—5720
LAug 31 · 18:10J. Cyndera—1111581A. Staniczek—13411113
WAug 14 · 01:55J. Cyndera—131011113A. Staniczek—1112491
WAug 13 · 19:55J. Cyndera—1111113A. Staniczek—8740
LAug 10 · 21:35J. Cyndera—11114982A. Staniczek—691111113
WAug 10 · 15:35J. Cyndera—1111113A. Staniczek—6770
WJul 30 · 23:55J. Cyndera—1111113A. Staniczek—7640
WJul 30 · 17:55J. Cyndera—1111113A. Staniczek—3670
LJul 27 · 21:35J. Cyndera—114621A. Staniczek—91111113
J. Cyndera10
LSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113WSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850WSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 16:15K. Gudzik1.918111411222J. Cyndera1.80114163243WSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110LSep 1 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.39101111562J. Zelezik1.49128611113LSep 1 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.46211721M. Machelski2.4711711113WAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231WAug 31 · 22:25A. Barton4.7571050J. Cyndera1.141112113WAug 31 · 21:35J. Cyndera1.341111113A. Staniczek2.905720
A. Staniczek10
LSep 10 · 20:30K. Gudzik1.4441111113A. Staniczek2.63118621LSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113WSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110WSep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek2.4611112113K. Gudzik1.44751171LSep 10 · 03:20A. Staniczek3.608640M. Warzecha1.221111113LSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123LSep 10 · 24:45A. Staniczek1.7181511171W. Stechly2.0211178193LAug 31 · 21:35J. Cyndera1.341111113A. Staniczek2.905720
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