TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109466
Played Sep 10Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1187118111121113
Adam Staniczek
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:37 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 93 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 72.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 39–9 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 9 of their 48 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Staniczek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:37What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-9 in 48
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 30 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1374 vs Staniczek 1214
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 40% vs Staniczek 20%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 40% vs Staniczek 20%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Staniczek -3
Staniczek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.36 / Staniczek 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13109466
Nocun1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Staniczek3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 116 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back11% 32 of 288
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%5 of 5
AwayStaniczek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Nocun8Staniczek2n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S3Nocun5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun5Staniczek1n = 6Nocun took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunStaniczekN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.4+4.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime658 / 1104 vs 365 / 101659.6%35.9%658 / 1104 vs 365 / 1016Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.433.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.36/Staniczek 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun—11112113A. Staniczek—671171
WSep 4 · 01:30Z. Nocun—1411113A. Staniczek—12990
WSep 3 · 19:30Z. Nocun—101111183A. Staniczek—1287161
WSep 3 · 05:05Z. Nocun—1111113A. Staniczek—7860
LSep 2 · 20:45Z. Nocun—3750A. Staniczek—1111113
WAug 20 · 23:20Z. Nocun—1111113A. Staniczek—1240
LAug 20 · 17:20Z. Nocun—119111162A. Staniczek—131183113
WAug 12 · 22:10Z. Nocun—11119113A. Staniczek—771161
LAug 12 · 19:40Z. Nocun—811371A. Staniczek—11711113
WAug 5 · 21:45Z. Nocun—1011611113A. Staniczek—12511772
Z. Nocun10
WSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.80132126153K. Gudzik1.9111111011132LSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133LSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591WSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123
A. Staniczek10
LSep 10 · 21:20J. Cyndera1.36811113113A. Staniczek3.0011591192LSep 10 · 20:30K. Gudzik1.4441111113A. Staniczek2.63118621LSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113WSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110WSep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek2.4611112113K. Gudzik1.44751171LSep 10 · 03:20A. Staniczek3.608640M. Warzecha1.221111113LSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123LSep 10 · 24:45A. Staniczek1.7181511171W. Stechly2.0211178193
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