TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110082
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Cyndera
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116511611119911
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Cyndera above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 56.2%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Cyndera 6–5 Zbigniew Nocun Zbigniew Nocun has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Cyndera beat Nocun 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:29What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyndera 1462 vs Nocun 1388
Cyndera
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyndera 60% vs Nocun 40%
Cyndera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyndera 60% vs Nocun 30%
Cyndera
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyndera -1 · Nocun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyndera 1.91 / Nocun 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nocun)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13110082
Cyndera1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 27 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Nocun1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCyndera5wins
AwayNocun5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCynderan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNocun62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyndera2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S2Cyndera4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Cyndera7Nocun3n = 10Cyndera took 7 of 10
S4Cyndera3Nocun3n = 6split evenly
S5Cyndera2Nocun1n = 3Cyndera took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCynderaNocunC − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.836.8−4.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCynderaNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 573 vs 659 / 110555.9%59.6%320 / 573 vs 659 / 1105Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunCyndera 1.91/Nocun 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera—1111113Z. Nocun—9850
LJul 31 · 01:55J. Cyndera—7210Z. Nocun—1111113
WJul 30 · 19:55J. Cyndera—121111113Z. Nocun—1013371
WJun 26 · 01:55J. Cyndera—911114123Z. Nocun—119911102
LJun 25 · 19:55J. Cyndera—61111942Z. Nocun—117711113
LJan 1 · 03:20J. Cyndera—2630Z. Nocun—1111113
WDec 31 · 19:20J. Cyndera—81111113Z. Nocun—117421
LNov 21 · 03:20J. Cyndera—7450Z. Nocun—1111113
LNov 20 · 21:20J. Cyndera—491191Z. Nocun—11119113
WOct 6 · 22:25J. Cyndera—961312113Z. Nocun—1111111082
J. Cyndera10
LSep 11 · 01:45J. Cyndera1.537117111K. Gudzik2.3811711133LSep 10 · 23:20J. Cyndera1.918630M. Lewczuk1.801111113WSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113WSep 10 · 21:20J. Cyndera1.36811113113A. Staniczek3.0011591192LSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113WSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850WSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 16:15K. Gudzik1.918111411222J. Cyndera1.80114163243WSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110LSep 1 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.39101111562J. Zelezik1.49128611113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133WSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.80132126153K. Gudzik1.9111111011132LSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591WSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123
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