TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105068
Played Sep 11Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118116––––
Krystian Gudzik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 59.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 1–2 Krystian Gudzik Mateusz Baran has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gudzik beat Baran 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gudzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1341 vs Gudzik 1433
Gudzik
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 20% vs Gudzik 80%
Gudzik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 30% vs Gudzik 60%
Gudzik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -3 · Gudzik +2
Baran
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gudzik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.83 / Gudzik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gudzik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13105068
Baran1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Gudzik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBaran1wins
AwayGudzik2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderGudzik leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran1Gudzik2n = 3Gudzik took 2 of 3
S2Baran2Gudzik1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S3Baran1Gudzik2n = 3Gudzik took 2 of 3
S4Baran1Gudzik2n = 3Gudzik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBaranGudzikB − GBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.742.7−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 119 vs 52 / 9853.8%53.1%64 / 119 vs 52 / 98Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikBaran 1.83/Gudzik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 10 · 18:55M. Baran—11511982K. Gudzik—611711113
LAug 10 · 24:35M. Baran—611381K. Gudzik—11811113
WAug 9 · 18:30M. Baran—611811113K. Gudzik—11411782
M. Baran10
LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730
K. Gudzik10
WSep 11 · 01:45J. Cyndera1.537117111K. Gudzik2.3811711133WSep 11 · 24:10K. Gudzik1.401411113A. Staniczek2.7512990WSep 10 · 22:35K. Gudzik2.63412116113M. Lewczuk1.44111091152LSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.80132126153K. Gudzik1.9111111011132WSep 10 · 20:30K. Gudzik1.4441111113A. Staniczek2.63118621WSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982WSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571LSep 10 · 16:15K. Gudzik1.918111411222J. Cyndera1.80114163243LSep 10 · 15:00K. Gudzik2.638770M. Lewczuk1.441111113LSep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek2.4611112113K. Gudzik1.44751171
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