TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105067
Played Sep 11Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115119––––
Adam Staniczek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–3 Adam Staniczek Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Staniczek beat Baran 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1358 vs Staniczek 1186
Baran
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Staniczek 20%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 40% vs Staniczek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +1 · Staniczek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.50 / Staniczek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Baran)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13105067
Baran1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 39 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Staniczek2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 116 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back11% 32 of 288
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderStaniczek leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStaniczek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran2Staniczek3n = 5Staniczek took 3 of 5
S2Baran1Staniczek4n = 5Staniczek took 4 of 5
S3Baran4Staniczek1n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
S4Baran2Staniczek3n = 5Staniczek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBaranStaniczekB − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.245.0−2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 120 vs 365 / 101854.2%35.9%65 / 120 vs 365 / 1018Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.733.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBaran 1.50/Staniczek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran—8101141A. Staniczek—11127113
WSep 1 · 01:35M. Baran—13111111113A. Staniczek—15135852
LAug 31 · 16:50M. Baran—119871A. Staniczek—91111113
WAug 9 · 22:10M. Baran—11415123A. Staniczek—81113101
LAug 9 · 19:40M. Baran—81213652A. Staniczek—11101111113
M. Baran10
WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100
A. Staniczek10
LSep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.755540M. Lewczuk1.251111113LSep 11 · 24:10K. Gudzik1.401411113A. Staniczek2.7512990WSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133LSep 10 · 21:20J. Cyndera1.36811113113A. Staniczek3.0011591192LSep 10 · 20:30K. Gudzik1.4441111113A. Staniczek2.63118621LSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113WSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110WSep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek2.4611112113K. Gudzik1.44751171
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