TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13003770
Played Aug 26Finished
Andrzej Krezel
Home
2.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911911––––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:39 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
511911911––––
H2H Andrzej Krezel 1–2 Kacper Kwiatkowski Andrzej Krezel has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (65%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1363 vs Kwiatkowski 1554
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 40% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 30% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel +1 · Kwiatkowski +3
Kwiatkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 2.65 / Kwiatkowski 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13003770
Krezel2.65
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 33 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back8% 6 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Kwiatkowski1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 32 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKrezel1wins
AwayKwiatkowski2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krezel2Kwiatkowski1n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S2Krezel0Kwiatkowski3n = 3Kwiatkowski took 3 of 3
S3Krezel2Kwiatkowski1n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKrezelKwiatkowskiKrezel − KwiatkowskiBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.738.7−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 169 vs 105 / 24026%43.8%44 / 169 vs 105 / 240Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKrezel 2.65/Kwiatkowski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.2%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel43116111052K. Kwiatkowski48811612113
LAug 24 · 22:50A. Krezel257990K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 24 · 16:55A. Krezel4211811123K. Kwiatkowski357117101
A. Krezel10
WSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113WSep 9 · 03:55A. Krezel1.241111123A. Barton3.4044100LSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:30K. Delikatny1.698570A. Krezel1.961111113WSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143WSep 8 · 23:05M. Brunner1.801111921A. Krezel1.9071311113WSep 8 · 21:55A. Krezel1.2411911113A. Barton3.40411581LSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.80133381A. Krezel1.85111111113LSep 8 · 17:55J. Michalik1.833111011113A. Krezel1.8711412962
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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