TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004450
Played Aug 25Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
2.26
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311711511––––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.54
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
311711511––––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 5–3 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1347 vs Kwiatkowski 1525
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 30% vs Kwiatkowski 70%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -1 · Kwiatkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.26 / Kwiatkowski 1.54
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13004450
Michalik2.26
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 118 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back18% 34 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 110
Kwiatkowski1.54
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 28 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMichalik5wins
AwayKwiatkowski3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMichalik leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik100%4 of 4
AwayKwiatkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik4Kwiatkowski4n = 8split evenly
S2Michalik3Kwiatkowski5n = 8Kwiatkowski took 5 of 8
S3Michalik4Kwiatkowski4n = 8split evenly
S4Michalik3Kwiatkowski1n = 4Michalik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricMichalikKwiatkowskiM − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.435.5+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime533 / 1148 vs 102 / 23746.4%43%533 / 1148 vs 102 / 237Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiMichalik 2.26/Kwiatkowski 1.54
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 12 · 02:20J. Michalik4111811113K. Kwiatkowski34711881
WJul 31 · 01:25J. Michalik351111133K. Kwiatkowski2357110
LJul 30 · 19:20J. Michalik35961191K. Kwiatkowski4111118113
LJul 27 · 23:20J. Michalik205960K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WJul 23 · 02:10J. Michalik331111113K. Kwiatkowski176740
WJul 22 · 20:05J. Michalik561151118113K. Kwiatkowski55611131692
WJul 15 · 24:45J. Michalik528111111113K. Kwiatkowski4611613972
LJul 14 · 02:10J. Michalik2711880K. Kwiatkowski351311113
J. Michalik10
WSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113LSep 11 · 03:30W. Stechly4.0551117113J. Michalik1.181191581LSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113WSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172LSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113LSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113LSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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