TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13000470
Played Aug 25Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811114119––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:09 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 61.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 11–8 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Kwiatkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1526 vs Karpiuk 1404
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 80% vs Karpiuk 40%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 70% vs Karpiuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Karpiuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.61 / Karpiuk 2.20
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+8.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13000470
Kwiatkowski1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 21 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Karpiuk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 48 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski7wins
AwayKarpiuk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski75%6 of 8
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski8Karpiuk2n = 10Kwiatkowski took 8 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski3Karpiuk7n = 10Karpiuk took 7 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski7Karpiuk3n = 10Kwiatkowski took 7 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski6Karpiuk2n = 8Kwiatkowski took 6 of 8
S5Kwiatkowski2Karpiuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiKarpiukKwiatkowski − KarpiukBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.439.6+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 232 vs 109 / 23342.7%46.8%99 / 232 vs 109 / 233Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.61/Karpiuk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski4111811113M. Karpiuk32811491
WAug 24 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski511111117113M. Karpiuk4171351152
WAug 23 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Karpiuk147250
LAug 23 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski50128911102M. Karpiuk511011117123
WAug 18 · 01:50K. Kwiatkowski5471112243M. Karpiuk5211910221
LAug 17 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski46118511112M. Karpiuk48911114133
WAug 17 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski391414113M. Karpiuk32121280
WAug 16 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski48119611113M. Karpiuk4361111872
LAug 13 · 03:35K. Kwiatkowski368513101M. Karpiuk45111111123
WAug 12 · 21:55K. Kwiatkowski46141011113M. Karpiuk381212951
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Nothing scheduled
M. Karpiuk
Sep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.38A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 13 · 18:55M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 13 · 19:40M. Karpiuk3.00M. Lewczuk1.36—Sep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.25G. Mucha1.57—Sep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.00M. Lewczuk1.36—Sep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.33K. Rybak3.25—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.25A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——
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