TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123425
Played Sep 13Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811911––––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 2–2 Mateusz Karpiuk Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:20What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1003 vs Karpiuk 1244
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 241 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 0% vs Karpiuk 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 10% vs Karpiuk 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -5 · Karpiuk -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 3.25 / Karpiuk 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Karpiuk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13123425
Rybak3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 51 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 104
Karpiuk1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 54 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it67% 35 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRybak2wins
AwayKarpiuk2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak2Karpiuk2n = 4split evenly
S2Rybak2Karpiuk2n = 4split evenly
S3Rybak1Karpiuk3n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricRybakKarpiukR − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match35.039.5−4.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 488 vs 116 / 26323.8%44.1%116 / 488 vs 116 / 263Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukRybak 3.25/Karpiuk 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 17 · 01:45K. Rybak611691213113M. Karpiuk591411141192
LJul 16 · 16:15K. Rybak136160M. Karpiuk331111113
WJul 12 · 01:25K. Rybak331111113M. Karpiuk239680
LJul 11 · 19:20K. Rybak33812761M. Karpiuk43111011113
K. Rybak10
LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LAug 19 · 04:20K. Rybak3.07117791P. Gesiarz1.3391111113WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4.3711119113J. Skorupa1.18951171LAug 19 · 01:55K. Rybak6.809170J. Zelezik1.061111113LAug 19 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski1.35113117113K. Rybak2.9071171162LAug 18 · 23:55K. Rybak6.25115111072Z. Nocun1.08911712113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281
Upcoming Matches
K. Rybak
Sep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 17:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 18:30K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—Sep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 23:45K. Rybak3.25M. Karpiuk1.33—Sep 14 · 24:35K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—
M. Karpiuk
Sep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.25G. Mucha1.57—Sep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.38A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 13 · 18:55M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 13 · 19:40M. Karpiuk2.29M. Lewczuk1.51—Sep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.25G. Mucha1.57—Sep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.00M. Lewczuk1.36—Sep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.33K. Rybak3.25—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.25A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.