TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12450873
Played Aug 19Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117311117711116
Kazimierz Rybak
Away
2.90
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:41 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
117311117711116
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 5–2 Kazimierz Rybak Kazimierz Rybak has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:41What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Kwiatkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1390 vs Rybak 1006
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 384 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Rybak 0%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Rybak 10%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Rybak -5
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybak form (0%) is below what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.35 / Rybak 2.90
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12450873
Kwiatkowski1.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 11 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Rybak2.90
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog23% won 57 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back10% 15 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski5wins
AwayRybak2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski100%4 of 4
AwayRybak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski4Rybak3n = 7Kwiatkowski took 4 of 7
S2Kwiatkowski2Rybak5n = 7Rybak took 5 of 7
S3Kwiatkowski4Rybak3n = 7Kwiatkowski took 4 of 7
S4Kwiatkowski4Rybak2n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiRybakK − RBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.637.9+1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiRybakBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 188 vs 115 / 47935.6%24%67 / 188 vs 115 / 479Avg sets wonper match1.61.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.933.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.35/Rybak 2.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.2%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 18 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski3911116113K. Rybak28291161
WAug 12 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski41113115113K. Rybak4471191162
LAug 11 · 19:30K. Kwiatkowski2771370K. Rybak371115113
WJul 29 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski44111111113K. Rybak32413961
LJul 29 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski34981161K. Rybak4011117113
WJul 26 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski484111111113K. Rybak4711813782
WJul 26 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski4413911113K. Rybak371111871
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LAug 19 · 04:20K. Rybak3.07117791P. Gesiarz1.3391111113WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4.3711119113J. Skorupa1.18951171LAug 19 · 01:55K. Rybak6.809170J. Zelezik1.061111113LAug 18 · 23:55K. Rybak6.25115111072Z. Nocun1.08911712113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Nothing scheduled
K. Rybak
Sep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 17:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 18:30K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—Sep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 23:45K. Rybak3.25M. Karpiuk1.33—Sep 14 · 24:35K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—
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