TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12458812
Played Aug 19Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911911––––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 70.3%
60 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 2–7 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kazimierz Rybak has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Kwiatkowski
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1018 vs Kwiatkowski 1418
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 399 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 20% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 10% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -1 · Kwiatkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 4.00 / Kwiatkowski 1.22
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12458812
Rybak4.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog22% won 58 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back9% 15 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 109
Kwiatkowski1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 13 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRybak2wins
AwayKwiatkowski7wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybak66.7%2 of 3
AwayKwiatkowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak3Kwiatkowski6n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S2Rybak6Kwiatkowski3n = 9Rybak took 6 of 9
S3Rybak3Kwiatkowski6n = 9Kwiatkowski took 6 of 9
S4Rybak3Kwiatkowski4n = 7Kwiatkowski took 4 of 7
S5Rybak0Kwiatkowski3n = 3Kwiatkowski took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricRybakKwiatkowskiR − KBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match37.139.2−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 484 vs 74 / 19824%37.4%116 / 484 vs 74 / 198Avg sets wonper match1.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match33.036.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiRybak 4.00/Kwiatkowski 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.6%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak279990K. Kwiatkowski331111113
LAug 19 · 24:45K. Rybak4271171162K. Kwiatkowski43113117113
LAug 18 · 22:20K. Rybak28291161K. Kwiatkowski3911116113
LAug 12 · 01:30K. Rybak4471191162K. Kwiatkowski41113115113
WAug 11 · 19:30K. Rybak371115113K. Kwiatkowski2771370
LJul 29 · 23:20K. Rybak32413961K. Kwiatkowski44111111113
WJul 29 · 17:20K. Rybak4011117113K. Kwiatkowski34981161
LJul 26 · 22:35K. Rybak4711813782K. Kwiatkowski484111111113
LJul 26 · 15:00K. Rybak371111871K. Kwiatkowski4413911113
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 04:20K. Rybak3.07117791P. Gesiarz1.3391111113WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4.3711119113J. Skorupa1.18951171LAug 19 · 01:55K. Rybak6.809170J. Zelezik1.061111113LAug 19 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski1.35113117113K. Rybak2.9071171162LAug 18 · 23:55K. Rybak6.25115111072Z. Nocun1.08911712113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 19 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski1.35113117113K. Rybak2.9071171162
Upcoming Matches
K. Rybak
Sep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 17:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 18:30K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—Sep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 23:45K. Rybak3.25M. Karpiuk1.33—Sep 14 · 24:35K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—
K. Kwiatkowski
Nothing scheduled
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