TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12458384
Played Aug 19Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
3.07
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711711911––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:51 and never touched — 76.0% is still 76.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
76.0%
76.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
119711711911––
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 1–5 Piotr Gesiarz Kazimierz Rybak has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (70%)
Gesiarz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Gesiarz
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1031 vs Gesiarz 1355
Gesiarz
Correct
both rated, 324 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 20% vs Gesiarz 40%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 10% vs Gesiarz 50%
Gesiarz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak +1 · Gesiarz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 3.07 / Gesiarz 1.33
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Gesiarz)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12458384
Rybak3.07
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog22% won 58 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back9% 15 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 109
Gesiarz1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 54 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 48 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRybak1wins
AwayGesiarz5wins
Gesiarz leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGesiarz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak2Gesiarz4n = 6Gesiarz took 4 of 6
S2Rybak1Gesiarz5n = 6Gesiarz took 5 of 6
S3Rybak2Gesiarz4n = 6Gesiarz took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricRybakGesiarzR − GBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match24.534.0−9.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 482 vs 115 / 24424.1%47.1%116 / 482 vs 115 / 244Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzRybak 3.07/Gesiarz 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.8%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 18 · 18:45K. Rybak184770P. Gesiarz331111113
LJul 20 · 20:20K. Rybak27127351P. Gesiarz43101111113
LJul 11 · 21:20K. Rybak1936100P. Gesiarz341111123
LJul 11 · 15:25K. Rybak188730P. Gesiarz331111113
LJun 28 · 24:35K. Rybak324111161P. Gesiarz4411139113
WJun 27 · 18:30K. Rybak331111113P. Gesiarz175840
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4.3711119113J. Skorupa1.18951171LAug 19 · 01:55K. Rybak6.809170J. Zelezik1.061111113LAug 19 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski1.35113117113K. Rybak2.9071171162LAug 18 · 23:55K. Rybak6.25115111072Z. Nocun1.08911712113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.831111113J. Skorupa1.838690WSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik1.61117481P. Gesiarz2.0861111113LSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44119612123D. Maszczynski2.639111110102LSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113LSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153LSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113
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P. Gesiarz
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