TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119129
Played Sep 12Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210811811116411
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:24 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 92 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 59.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 3–5 Grzegorz Mucha Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Mucha
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1372 vs Mucha 1411
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 40% vs Mucha 80%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 60% vs Mucha 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -2 · Mucha +3
Mucha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.00 / Mucha 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mucha)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119129
Gesiarz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Mucha1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 79 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGesiarz3wins
AwayMucha5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMucha leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz60%3 of 5
AwayMucha100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz5Mucha3n = 8Gesiarz took 5 of 8
S2Gesiarz2Mucha6n = 8Mucha took 6 of 8
S3Gesiarz3Mucha5n = 8Mucha took 5 of 8
S4Gesiarz3Mucha3n = 6split evenly
S5Gesiarz1Mucha2n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricGesiarzMuchaG − MBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match41.542.5−1.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 291 vs 126 / 25246.7%50%136 / 291 vs 126 / 252Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaGesiarz 2.00/Mucha 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz45114118112G. Mucha50911611133
LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz2911990G. Mucha351311113
LAug 29 · 21:20P. Gesiarz246990G. Mucha331111113
WAug 29 · 18:10P. Gesiarz48111214113G. Mucha416101691
LAug 15 · 22:55P. Gesiarz4213127101G. Mucha48111411123
WAug 15 · 16:55P. Gesiarz511111711113G. Mucha4881311972
LAug 9 · 02:10P. Gesiarz481111115102G. Mucha49135811123
WAug 8 · 20:05P. Gesiarz4515811113G. Mucha361311391
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142
G. Mucha10
LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791WSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133WSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113
Upcoming Matches
P. Gesiarz
Sep 12 · 17:45P. Gesiarz3.50T. Kocik1.28—Sep 12 · 18:30P. Gesiarz2.00K. Gudzik1.73—Sep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61J. Skorupa2.20—Sep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.50T. Kocik1.28—Sep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44D. Maszczynski2.63—Sep 12 · 23:45P. Gesiarz2.00G. Mucha1.73—Sep 13 · 24:35P. Gesiarz2.08K. Gudzik1.61—Sep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.61J. Skorupa2.20—
G. Mucha
Sep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25D. Maszczynski3.75—Sep 12 · 18:55G. Mucha3.75T. Kocik1.25—Sep 12 · 19:40G. Mucha2.75K. Gudzik1.40—Sep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.67J. Skorupa2.10—Sep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75K. Gudzik1.40—Sep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.73P. Gesiarz2.00—Sep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha3.75T. Kocik1.25—Sep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.28D. Maszczynski3.50—Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——
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