TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119123
Played Sep 12Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1174111315411––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:25 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 76 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 2–2 Jakub Skorupa Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1421 vs Skorupa 1364
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 80% vs Skorupa 40%
Mucha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 60% vs Skorupa 30%
Mucha
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +4 · Skorupa -1
Mucha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.67 / Skorupa 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Mucha)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119123
Mucha1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 79 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Skorupa2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 102 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMucha2wins
AwaySkorupa2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha33.3%1 of 3
AwaySkorupan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha3Skorupa1n = 4Mucha took 3 of 4
S2Mucha1Skorupa3n = 4Skorupa took 3 of 4
S3Mucha1Skorupa3n = 4Skorupa took 3 of 4
S4Mucha2Skorupa2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMuchaSkorupaM − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.239.20.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 253 vs 304 / 63550.2%47.9%127 / 253 vs 304 / 635Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.67/Skorupa 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 7 · 01:25G. Mucha503111015113J. Skorupa49115121382
LSep 6 · 19:20G. Mucha33116791J. Skorupa3851111113
LJul 8 · 22:35G. Mucha34115991J. Skorupa4291111113
WJul 8 · 15:00G. Mucha4011711113J. Skorupa28411671
G. Mucha10
WSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562
J. Skorupa10
LSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111WSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113LSep 10 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.41611411113J. Skorupa2.5511311252WSep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.423930J. Skorupa1.461111113LSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:55K. Gudzik1.85136119113J. Skorupa1.85111161142LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25D. Maszczynski3.75—Sep 12 · 18:55G. Mucha3.75T. Kocik1.25—Sep 12 · 19:40G. Mucha2.75K. Gudzik1.40—Sep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.67J. Skorupa2.10—Sep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75K. Gudzik1.40—Sep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.73P. Gesiarz2.00—Sep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha3.75T. Kocik1.25—Sep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.28D. Maszczynski3.50—Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——
J. Skorupa
Sep 12 · 17:20J. Skorupa2.20K. Gudzik1.61—Sep 12 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.33D. Maszczynski3.25—Sep 12 · 20:05J. Skorupa2.20P. Gesiarz1.61—Sep 12 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.10G. Mucha1.67—Sep 12 · 22:35J. Skorupa2.95T. Kocik1.32—Sep 12 · 23:20J. Skorupa2.20K. Gudzik1.61—Sep 13 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.29D. Maszczynski3.10—Sep 13 · 02:10J. Skorupa2.20P. Gesiarz1.61—
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