TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114958
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611118111––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:44 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-1
Point 61 set 4, 6-1 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 60.1%
61 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 2–1 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1525 vs Skorupa 1362
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Skorupa 60%
Kocik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 80% vs Skorupa 40%
Kocik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +5 · Skorupa +1
Kocik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.30 / Skorupa 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kocik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13114958
Kocik1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 46 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Skorupa3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 102 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKocik2wins
AwaySkorupa1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKocik leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik1Skorupa2n = 3Skorupa took 2 of 3
S2Kocik1Skorupa2n = 3Skorupa took 2 of 3
S3Kocik3Skorupa0n = 3Kocik took 3 of 3
S4Kocik2Skorupa1n = 3Kocik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKocikSkorupaK − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match47.041.7+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 88 vs 304 / 63471.6%48%63 / 88 vs 304 / 634Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.30/Skorupa 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 29 · 20:45T. Kocik48961111113J. Skorupa4211117762
WAug 2 · 02:35T. Kocik45111211113J. Skorupa31414581
LAug 1 · 18:10T. Kocik48911121152J. Skorupa521171013113
T. Kocik10
WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191WSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872
J. Skorupa10
WSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111WSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113LSep 10 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.41611411113J. Skorupa2.5511311252WSep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.423930J. Skorupa1.461111113LSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:55K. Gudzik1.85136119113J. Skorupa1.85111161142LSep 9 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.811512113J. Skorupa1.83131040LSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek2.4261111173J. Skorupa1.461137151WSep 9 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.709101112102J. Skorupa2.001112810123
Upcoming Matches
T. Kocik
Sep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28P. Gesiarz3.50—Sep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.25G. Mucha3.75—Sep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.03D. Maszczynski10.00—Sep 12 · 21:45T. Kocik1.28P. Gesiarz3.50—Sep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.32J. Skorupa2.95—Sep 13 · 24:10T. Kocik1.03D. Maszczynski10.00—Sep 13 · 01:00T. Kocik1.25G. Mucha3.75—Sep 13 · 01:45T. Kocik1.41K. Gudzik2.55—
J. Skorupa
Sep 12 · 17:20J. Skorupa2.20K. Gudzik1.61—Sep 12 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.33D. Maszczynski3.25—Sep 12 · 20:05J. Skorupa2.20P. Gesiarz1.61—Sep 12 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.10G. Mucha1.67—Sep 12 · 22:35J. Skorupa2.95T. Kocik1.32—Sep 12 · 23:20J. Skorupa2.20K. Gudzik1.61—Sep 13 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.29D. Maszczynski3.10—Sep 13 · 02:10J. Skorupa2.20P. Gesiarz1.61—
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