TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119977
Played Sep 12Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11991161112101210
Dariusz Maszczynski
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched — 67.2% is still 67.2%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
67.2%
67.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 101 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 67.2%
101 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 31–17 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 17 of their 48 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gesiarz beat Maszczynski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gesiarz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-17 in 48
Gesiarz
Correct
gap of 14 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1312 vs Maszczynski 1224
Gesiarz
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 20% vs Maszczynski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 30% vs Maszczynski 10%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -4 · Maszczynski +1
Gesiarz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.44 / Maszczynski 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Gesiarz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119977
Gesiarz1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 67 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it79% 59 of 75
Maszczynski2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 66 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGesiarz6wins
AwayMaszczynski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGesiarz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz100%5 of 5
AwayMaszczynski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz5Maszczynski5n = 10split evenly
S2Gesiarz5Maszczynski5n = 10split evenly
S3Gesiarz4Maszczynski6n = 10Maszczynski took 6 of 10
S4Gesiarz7Maszczynski0n = 7Gesiarz took 7 of 7
S5Gesiarz1Maszczynski2n = 3Maszczynski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGesiarzMaszczynskiG − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.3+1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 297 vs 91 / 41846.1%21.8%137 / 297 vs 91 / 418Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.233.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.44/Maszczynski 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz4291111113D. Maszczynski27115381
LSep 6 · 24:35P. Gesiarz48711711122D. Maszczynski48116116143
WSep 5 · 18:30P. Gesiarz331111113D. Maszczynski187560
WAug 31 · 16:10P. Gesiarz4211119113D. Maszczynski32981141
LAug 24 · 16:00P. Gesiarz2595110D. Maszczynski351111133
WAug 17 · 16:00P. Gesiarz3711123113D. Maszczynski367101181
WAug 16 · 02:10P. Gesiarz48119611113D. Maszczynski4281111842
LAug 15 · 20:05P. Gesiarz111550D. Maszczynski331111113
WAug 10 · 16:00P. Gesiarz4211911113D. Maszczynski32611871
LAug 8 · 22:55P. Gesiarz43741111102D. Maszczynski50111179123
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880LSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113LSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153LSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113
D. Maszczynski10
WSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070LSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113LSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120LSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1511138113D. Maszczynski4.507111181LSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122
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