TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119112
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171113118116––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 62.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 5–3 Piotr Gesiarz Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:19What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Kocik
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1520 vs Gesiarz 1375
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Gesiarz 40%
Kocik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 80% vs Gesiarz 50%
Kocik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +5 · Gesiarz +1
Kocik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.28 / Gesiarz 3.50
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Kocik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119112
Kocik1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 46 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Gesiarz3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKocik5wins
AwayGesiarz3wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKocik leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocik60%3 of 5
AwayGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik5Gesiarz3n = 8Kocik took 5 of 8
S2Kocik4Gesiarz4n = 8split evenly
S3Kocik7Gesiarz1n = 8Kocik took 7 of 8
S4Kocik3Gesiarz3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKocikGesiarzK − GBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match39.434.0+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 90 vs 137 / 29372.2%46.8%65 / 90 vs 137 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.28/Gesiarz 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.3%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 5 · 21:45T. Kocik331111113P. Gesiarz216690
LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik37119981P. Gesiarz4181111113
WAug 1 · 21:20T. Kocik3961111113P. Gesiarz27115561
LAug 1 · 15:25T. Kocik511110111092P. Gesiarz51712912113
WJul 25 · 22:55T. Kocik331111113P. Gesiarz269980
WJul 25 · 16:55T. Kocik3961111113P. Gesiarz29116751
LJul 12 · 24:35T. Kocik37891191P. Gesiarz3711114113
WJul 11 · 18:28T. Kocik46111211123P. Gesiarz408148101
T. Kocik10
WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191WSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113
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