TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119914
Played Sep 12Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416911118611––
Tomasz Kocik
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Tomasz Kocik below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 86 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 76.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 3–6 Tomasz Kocik Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kocik beat Gesiarz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Kocik
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1317 vs Kocik 1538
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 20% vs Kocik 100%
Kocik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 30% vs Kocik 100%
Kocik
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -3 · Kocik +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 3.50 / Kocik 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kocik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13119914
Gesiarz3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Kocik1.28
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 46 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeGesiarz3wins
AwayKocik6wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKocik leads 6–3, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
AwayKocik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz3Kocik6n = 9Kocik took 6 of 9
S2Gesiarz5Kocik4n = 9Gesiarz took 5 of 9
S3Gesiarz1Kocik8n = 9Kocik took 8 of 9
S4Gesiarz3Kocik4n = 7Kocik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricGesiarzKocikG − KBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match34.039.9−5.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzKocikBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 296 vs 68 / 9346.3%73.1%137 / 296 vs 68 / 93Avg sets wonper match1.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikGesiarz 3.50/Kocik 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.1%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 12 · 17:45P. Gesiarz34713861T. Kocik44111111113
LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz216690T. Kocik331111113
WSep 5 · 17:45P. Gesiarz4181111113T. Kocik37119981
LAug 1 · 21:20P. Gesiarz27115561T. Kocik3961111113
WAug 1 · 15:25P. Gesiarz51712912113T. Kocik511110111092
LJul 25 · 22:55P. Gesiarz269980T. Kocik331111113
LJul 25 · 16:55P. Gesiarz29116751T. Kocik3961111113
WJul 12 · 24:35P. Gesiarz3711114113T. Kocik37891191
LJul 11 · 18:28P. Gesiarz408148101T. Kocik46111211123
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153LSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113
T. Kocik10
WSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070WSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113
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