TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119980
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114116118––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:16 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 60.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 5–1 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kocik beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Kocik
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1564 vs Skorupa 1444
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Skorupa 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 100% vs Skorupa 70%
Kocik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +5 · Skorupa +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.22 / Skorupa 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Kocik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13119980
Kocik1.22
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 46 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Skorupa4.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 102 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKocik5wins
AwaySkorupa1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKocik leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocik100%3 of 3
AwaySkorupa33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik3Skorupa3n = 6split evenly
S2Kocik3Skorupa3n = 6split evenly
S3Kocik6Skorupa0n = 6Kocik took 6 of 6
S4Kocik4Skorupa1n = 5Kocik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKocikSkorupaK − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.033.5+8.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 95 vs 309 / 64173.7%48.2%70 / 95 vs 309 / 641Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.22/Skorupa 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik331111113J. Skorupa184680
WSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik3911611113J. Skorupa27711811
WAug 30 · 24:25T. Kocik3961111113J. Skorupa31119741
WAug 29 · 20:45T. Kocik48961111113J. Skorupa4211117762
WAug 2 · 02:35T. Kocik45111211113J. Skorupa31414581
LAug 1 · 18:10T. Kocik48911121152J. Skorupa521171013113
T. Kocik10
WSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113WSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070WSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191
J. Skorupa10
WSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153WSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113WSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113LSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111WSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113LSep 10 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.41611411113J. Skorupa2.5511311252
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