TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119369
Played Sep 12Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911141611514121012
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:14 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 114 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.9%
114 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 2–4 Jakub Skorupa Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Skorupa beat Mucha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:14What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Skorupa
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1395 vs Skorupa 1464
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 60% vs Skorupa 80%
Skorupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 70% vs Skorupa 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +1 · Skorupa +4
Skorupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.61 / Skorupa 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mucha)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13119369
Mucha1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 79 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Skorupa2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 102 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMucha2wins
AwaySkorupa4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSkorupa leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha25%1 of 4
AwaySkorupan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha4Skorupa2n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
S2Mucha1Skorupa5n = 6Skorupa took 5 of 6
S3Mucha2Skorupa4n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S4Mucha3Skorupa3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMuchaSkorupaM − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.242.8−1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 258 vs 309 / 64050%48.3%129 / 258 vs 309 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.61/Skorupa 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha589141114102J. Skorupa561116512123
LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha321141341J. Skorupa4471115113
WSep 7 · 01:25G. Mucha503111015113J. Skorupa49115121382
LSep 6 · 19:20G. Mucha33116791J. Skorupa3851111113
LJul 8 · 22:35G. Mucha34115991J. Skorupa4291111113
WJul 8 · 15:00G. Mucha4011711113J. Skorupa28411671
G. Mucha10
WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113LSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113WSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730
J. Skorupa10
LSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153WSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113WSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113LSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111WSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.67P. Gesiarz2.10—Sep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00T. Kocik1.22—Sep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.30D. Maszczynski3.40—Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 13 · 19:20G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——Sep 13 · 20:05G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha—M. Guzik——
J. Skorupa
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