TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119930
Played Sep 12Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116711119113
Krystian Gudzik
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:18 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeKrystian Gudzik to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 89 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Krystian Gudzik at 64.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 1–4 Krystian Gudzik Grzegorz Mucha has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mucha beat Gudzik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gudzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Gudzik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1395 vs Gudzik 1362
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 40% vs Gudzik 20%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 60% vs Gudzik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha -1 · Gudzik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gudzik form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 2.75 / Gudzik 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Gudzik)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13119930
Mucha2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Gudzik1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 36 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMucha1wins
AwayGudzik4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderGudzik leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGudzik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha2Gudzik3n = 5Gudzik took 3 of 5
S2Mucha2Gudzik3n = 5Gudzik took 3 of 5
S3Mucha1Gudzik4n = 5Gudzik took 4 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricMuchaGudzikM − GBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match32.037.8−5.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 258 vs 55 / 10650%51.9%129 / 258 vs 55 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikMucha 2.75/Gudzik 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.1%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 12 · 19:40G. Mucha341211113K. Gudzik2810990
LAug 12 · 22:55G. Mucha29101180K. Gudzik361213113
LAug 12 · 16:55G. Mucha31714100K. Gudzik391116123
LAug 10 · 02:10G. Mucha2551280K. Gudzik361114113
LAug 9 · 20:05G. Mucha4111115772K. Gudzik50891111113
G. Mucha10
LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113LSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113WSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730
K. Gudzik10
LSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113WSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113LSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120WSep 11 · 01:45J. Cyndera1.537117111K. Gudzik2.3811711133LSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860WSep 11 · 24:10K. Gudzik1.401411113A. Staniczek2.7512990WSep 10 · 22:35K. Gudzik2.63412116113M. Lewczuk1.44111091152
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.67P. Gesiarz2.10—Sep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00T. Kocik1.22—Sep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.30D. Maszczynski3.40—Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 13 · 19:20G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——Sep 13 · 20:05G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha—M. Guzik——
K. Gudzik
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