TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119109
Played Sep 12Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1214118119117––
Dariusz Maszczynski
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:17 and never touched — 80.6% is still 80.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
80.6%
80.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 83 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 80.6%
83 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 7–1 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:17What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Mucha
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1396 vs Maszczynski 1176
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 220 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 80% vs Maszczynski 0%
Mucha
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 60% vs Maszczynski 10%
Mucha
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha -1 · Maszczynski -5
Maszczynski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (0%) is below what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.25 / Maszczynski 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Mucha)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13119109
Mucha1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 79 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Maszczynski3.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 66 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMucha7wins
AwayMaszczynski1wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMucha leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha80%4 of 5
AwayMaszczynski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha5Maszczynski3n = 8Mucha took 5 of 8
S2Mucha6Maszczynski2n = 8Mucha took 6 of 8
S3Mucha3Maszczynski5n = 8Maszczynski took 5 of 8
S4Mucha5Maszczynski3n = 8Mucha took 5 of 8
S5Mucha3Maszczynski0n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMuchaMaszczynskiMucha − MaszczynskiBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.539.5+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 254 vs 90 / 41450%21.7%127 / 254 vs 90 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.233.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.25/Maszczynski 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 5 · 23:20G. Mucha45311119113D. Maszczynski4511881172
WSep 5 · 17:20G. Mucha3611112123D. Maszczynski355911101
WAug 16 · 01:25G. Mucha45111111123D. Maszczynski371386101
WAug 15 · 19:20G. Mucha51119119113D. Maszczynski4061141182
LAug 9 · 01:25G. Mucha371110881D. Maszczynski4281211113
WAug 8 · 19:20G. Mucha4411119133D. Maszczynski399811111
WJul 5 · 24:10G. Mucha4111118113D. Maszczynski33971161
WJul 4 · 20:30G. Mucha49811811113D. Maszczynski4511711972
G. Mucha10
LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113WSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120LSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1511138113D. Maszczynski4.507111181LSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113LSep 7 · 16:50D. Maszczynski2.605780A. Krezel1.411111113LSep 7 · 16:00J. Slawomir1.261111113D. Maszczynski3.402990LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122LSep 5 · 23:20D. Maszczynski3.7511881172G. Mucha1.25311119113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 12 · 19:40G. Mucha2.75K. Gudzik1.40—Sep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.61J. Skorupa2.20—Sep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75K. Gudzik1.40—Sep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.73P. Gesiarz2.00—Sep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha3.75T. Kocik1.25—Sep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.28D. Maszczynski3.50—Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 13 · 19:20G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——
D. Maszczynski
Sep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25J. Skorupa1.33—Sep 12 · 20:30D. Maszczynski10.50T. Kocik1.02—Sep 12 · 21:20D. Maszczynski3.75K. Gudzik1.20—Sep 12 · 22:55D. Maszczynski2.75P. Gesiarz1.40—Sep 13 · 24:10D. Maszczynski10.00T. Kocik1.03—Sep 13 · 01:25D. Maszczynski3.10J. Skorupa1.29—Sep 13 · 02:35D. Maszczynski3.50G. Mucha1.28—
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