TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119099
Played Sep 12Finished
Dariusz Maszczynski
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119411511311––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:14 and never touched — 77.6% is still 77.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
77.6%
77.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDariusz Maszczynski above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 65 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 77.6%
65 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 1–6 Jakub Skorupa Dariusz Maszczynski has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:14What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Skorupa
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1170 vs Skorupa 1403
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 233 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 0% vs Skorupa 60%
Skorupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 10% vs Skorupa 50%
Skorupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski -5 · Skorupa +2
Maszczynski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 3.25 / Skorupa 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Skorupa)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13119099
Maszczynski3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 66 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Skorupa1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 152 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 99 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMaszczynski1wins
AwaySkorupa6wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSkorupa leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynski33.3%1 of 3
AwaySkorupa100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski3Skorupa4n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S2Maszczynski1Skorupa6n = 7Skorupa took 6 of 7
S3Maszczynski3Skorupa4n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S4Maszczynski1Skorupa4n = 5Skorupa took 4 of 5
S5Maszczynski1Skorupa2n = 3Skorupa took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiSkorupaM − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match32.641.1−8.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 415 vs 306 / 63721.7%48%90 / 415 vs 306 / 637Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaMaszczynski 3.25/Skorupa 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 24 · 07:10D. Maszczynski501110126113J. Skorupa44412101172
LAug 17 · 04:00D. Maszczynski4213115672J. Skorupa491151111113
LAug 3 · 04:25D. Maszczynski28113861J. Skorupa3961111113
LAug 1 · 23:45D. Maszczynski228770J. Skorupa331111113
LAug 1 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3746111152J. Skorupa47111177113
LJul 27 · 16:50D. Maszczynski1810440J. Skorupa341211113
LNov 24 · 21:00D. Maszczynski31491171J. Skorupa4211119113
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120LSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1511138113D. Maszczynski4.507111181LSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113LSep 7 · 16:50D. Maszczynski2.605780A. Krezel1.411111113LSep 7 · 16:00J. Slawomir1.261111113D. Maszczynski3.402990LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122
J. Skorupa10
WSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113LSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111WSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113LSep 10 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.41611411113J. Skorupa2.5511311252WSep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.423930J. Skorupa1.461111113LSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:55K. Gudzik1.85136119113J. Skorupa1.85111161142
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