TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119783
Played Sep 12Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118118––––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:45 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 6–3 Piotr Gesiarz Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Mucha beat Gesiarz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Mucha
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1405 vs Gesiarz 1329
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 60% vs Gesiarz 20%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 70% vs Gesiarz 30%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +1 · Gesiarz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.67 / Gesiarz 2.10
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Mucha)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13119783
Mucha1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 79 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Gesiarz2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMucha6wins
AwayGesiarz3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMucha leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha100%3 of 3
AwayGesiarz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha3Gesiarz6n = 9Gesiarz took 6 of 9
S2Mucha7Gesiarz2n = 9Mucha took 7 of 9
S3Mucha6Gesiarz3n = 9Mucha took 6 of 9
S4Mucha3Gesiarz4n = 7Gesiarz took 4 of 7
S5Mucha3Gesiarz1n = 4Mucha took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMuchaGesiarzM − GBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match43.241.7+1.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 259 vs 138 / 29850.2%46.3%130 / 259 vs 138 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.67/Gesiarz 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 12 · 15:50G. Mucha491011116113P. Gesiarz4312881142
WSep 6 · 02:10G. Mucha50911611133P. Gesiarz45114118112
WSep 5 · 20:05G. Mucha351311113P. Gesiarz2911990
WAug 29 · 21:20G. Mucha331111113P. Gesiarz246990
LAug 29 · 18:10G. Mucha416101691P. Gesiarz48111214113
WAug 15 · 22:55G. Mucha48111411123P. Gesiarz4213127101
LAug 15 · 16:55G. Mucha4881311972P. Gesiarz511111711113
WAug 9 · 02:10G. Mucha49135811123P. Gesiarz481111115102
LAug 8 · 20:05G. Mucha361311391P. Gesiarz4515811113
G. Mucha10
WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113LSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113WSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44119612123D. Maszczynski2.639111110102LSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113LSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153LSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00T. Kocik1.22—Sep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.30D. Maszczynski3.40—Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 13 · 19:20G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——Sep 13 · 20:05G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 23:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——
P. Gesiarz
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