TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119894
Played Sep 13Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116119––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 57.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 5–4 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skorupa beat Gesiarz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:54What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skorupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1334 vs Skorupa 1458
Skorupa
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 40% vs Skorupa 80%
Skorupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 30% vs Skorupa 80%
Skorupa
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Skorupa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.83 / Skorupa 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skorupa)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13119894
Gesiarz1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Skorupa1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeGesiarz5wins
AwaySkorupa4wins
Gesiarz leads 5–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz83.3%5 of 6
AwaySkorupa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz6Skorupa3n = 9Gesiarz took 6 of 9
S2Gesiarz6Skorupa3n = 9Gesiarz took 6 of 9
S3Gesiarz7Skorupa2n = 9Gesiarz took 7 of 9
S4Gesiarz0Skorupa4n = 4Skorupa took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home556%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricGesiarzSkorupaG − SBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match37.331.2+6.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 301 vs 311 / 64446.5%48.3%140 / 301 vs 311 / 644Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaGesiarz 1.83/Skorupa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz331111113J. Skorupa238690
LSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz50111016131J. Skorupa5271218153
WAug 23 · 02:35P. Gesiarz331111113J. Skorupa143560
WAug 22 · 18:10P. Gesiarz331111113J. Skorupa183780
WAug 19 · 24:20P. Gesiarz361411113J. Skorupa2012260
LAug 18 · 20:20P. Gesiarz41881691J. Skorupa47111114113
LAug 1 · 22:10P. Gesiarz4791711101J. Skorupa4911197123
LAug 1 · 19:40P. Gesiarz301011631J. Skorupa3912511113
WJul 27 · 20:20P. Gesiarz331111113J. Skorupa194780
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik1.61117481P. Gesiarz2.0861111113LSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44119612123D. Maszczynski2.639111110102LSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113LSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153LSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133
J. Skorupa10
WSep 13 · 01:25D. Maszczynski3.40111060J. Skorupa1.301312113WSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153WSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113WSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113LSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113
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