TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119974
Played Sep 12Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111214611––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:14 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeKrystian Gudzik to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 60 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Krystian Gudzik at 58.5%
60 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 4–2 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skorupa beat Gudzik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:14What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gudzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Gudzik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1333 vs Skorupa 1462
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 20% vs Skorupa 80%
Skorupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 40% vs Skorupa 70%
Skorupa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik -3 · Skorupa -1
Gudzik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Gudzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 1.61 / Skorupa 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Gudzik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119974
Gudzik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 36 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Skorupa2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 102 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGudzik4wins
AwaySkorupa2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderGudzik leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGudzik80%4 of 5
AwaySkorupan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gudzik5Skorupa1n = 6Gudzik took 5 of 6
S2Gudzik2Skorupa4n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S3Gudzik3Skorupa3n = 6split evenly
S4Gudzik2Skorupa2n = 4split evenly
S5Gudzik2Skorupa1n = 3Gudzik took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGudzikSkorupaG − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match41.338.2+3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 108 vs 310 / 64250.9%48.3%55 / 108 vs 310 / 642Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikGudzik 1.61/Skorupa 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik2461260J. Skorupa361114113
LSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik4211113892J. Skorupa43641111113
WSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik4411911133J. Skorupa387119111
WSep 9 · 21:55K. Gudzik50136119113J. Skorupa43111161142
WSep 3 · 04:40K. Gudzik331111113J. Skorupa249870
WSep 2 · 22:40K. Gudzik551212911113J. Skorupa45101411552
K. Gudzik10
LSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113WSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113LSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120WSep 11 · 01:45J. Cyndera1.537117111K. Gudzik2.3811711133LSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860WSep 11 · 24:10K. Gudzik1.401411113A. Staniczek2.7512990
J. Skorupa10
LSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153WSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113WSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113LSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111WSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113
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