TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120855
Played Sep 13Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
1.61
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116711411811––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
2.08
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeKrystian Gudzik to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Krystian Gudzik at 59.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 1–1 Piotr Gesiarz Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gudzik beat Gesiarz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (56%)
Gudzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1331 vs Gesiarz 1320
Gudzik
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 20% vs Gesiarz 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 30% vs Gesiarz 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik -4 · Gesiarz -1
Gudzik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 1.61 / Gesiarz 2.08
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Gudzik)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13120855
Gudzik1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 33 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Gesiarz2.08
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 46 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGudzik1wins
AwayGesiarz1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGudzikGesiarzGudzik − GesiarzBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.545.0−7.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 109 vs 139 / 30050.5%46.3%55 / 109 vs 139 / 300Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikGudzik 1.61/Gesiarz 2.08
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik30117481P. Gesiarz3961111113
WSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik45512125113P. Gesiarz511110101192
K. Gudzik10
LSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113WSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113LSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120WSep 11 · 01:45J. Cyndera1.537117111K. Gudzik2.3811711133LSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44119612123D. Maszczynski2.639111110102LSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113LSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153LSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.