TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12457576
Played Aug 18Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
6.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1195111171012711
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.08
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:50 and never touched — 77.0% is still 77.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
77.0%
77.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1195111171012711
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 7–25 Zbigniew Nocun Kazimierz Rybak has won 7 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (85%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-25 in 32
Nocun
Correct
gap of 18 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1009 vs Nocun 1401
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 392 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 0% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 20% vs Nocun 70%
Nocun
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -5 · Nocun +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 95% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (80%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 6.25 / Nocun 1.08
Signal prob.5% / 95%
Edge (Nocun)+9.7pp
TT Elite Series · #12457576
Rybak6.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog23% won 57 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back10% 15 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 103
Nocun1.08
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 303 of 461
Up 2–0, closes it95% 150 of 158
Up 1–0, closes it86% 221 of 256
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRybak2wins
AwayNocun8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybak28.6%2 of 7
AwayNocun100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak7Nocun3n = 10Rybak took 7 of 10
S2Rybak2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S3Rybak2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S4Rybak2Nocun7n = 9Nocun took 7 of 9
S5Rybak2Nocun2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRybakNocunR − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.042.1−7.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 478 vs 600 / 99724.1%60.2%115 / 478 vs 600 / 997Avg sets wonper match1.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunRybak 6.25/Nocun 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
95%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 17:55K. Rybak357101171Z. Nocun4311129113
LAug 14 · 01:45K. Rybak3911561162Z. Nocun51911119113
LAug 13 · 16:15K. Rybak199460Z. Nocun331111113
WAug 12 · 03:55K. Rybak48111286113Z. Nocun47810111172
LAug 11 · 21:55K. Rybak29114861Z. Nocun3741111113
WAug 7 · 01:10K. Rybak49119117113Z. Nocun4351171192
LAug 6 · 16:15K. Rybak35118881Z. Nocun4291111113
LAug 2 · 22:55K. Rybak24114541Z. Nocun3961111113
LAug 2 · 16:55K. Rybak28113681Z. Nocun4181111113
LJul 31 · 01:10K. Rybak4451181192Z. Nocun45113119113
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LAug 19 · 04:20K. Rybak3.07117791P. Gesiarz1.3391111113WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4.3711119113J. Skorupa1.18951171LAug 19 · 01:55K. Rybak6.809170J. Zelezik1.061111113LAug 19 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski1.35113117113K. Rybak2.9071171162
Z. Nocun10
WSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581WSep 11 · 24:35J. Cyndera1.9111561192Z. Nocun1.80611119113WSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133WSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.80132126153K. Gudzik1.9111111011132LSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133LSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113
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