TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12459268
Played Aug 19Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611711––––
Adam Staniczek
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched — 79.8% is still 79.8%
Graded at full timeAdam Staniczek to win
79.8%
79.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Adam Staniczek at 79.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 6–20 Adam Staniczek Kazimierz Rybak has won 6 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Staniczek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-20 in 26
Staniczek
Correct
gap of 14 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1015 vs Staniczek 1291
Staniczek
Correct
both rated, 276 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 20% vs Staniczek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 10% vs Staniczek 40%
Staniczek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -3 · Staniczek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Staniczek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 3.00 / Staniczek 1.36
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Staniczek)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12459268
Rybak3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog22% won 58 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back9% 15 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 109
Staniczek1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 86 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it88% 65 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRybak1wins
AwayStaniczek9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybak20%1 of 5
AwayStaniczek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Rybak3Staniczek7n = 10Staniczek took 7 of 10
S3Rybak1Staniczek9n = 10Staniczek took 9 of 10
S4Rybak3Staniczek4n = 7Staniczek took 4 of 7
S5Rybak0Staniczek3n = 3Staniczek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRybakStaniczekR − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.041.8−7.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 485 vs 365 / 101523.9%36%116 / 485 vs 365 / 1015Avg sets wonper match1.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match32.933.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaniczekRybak 3.00/Staniczek 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.8%
Staniczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 02:45K. Rybak3811351272A. Staniczek507111110113
WJul 30 · 23:05K. Rybak4411139113A. Staniczek389111171
LJul 29 · 21:00K. Rybak2912980A. Staniczek361411113
LJul 29 · 16:35K. Rybak249690A. Staniczek331111113
LJul 26 · 21:45K. Rybak32118851A. Staniczek4291111113
LJul 26 · 17:45K. Rybak49111171192A. Staniczek50138117113
LJul 21 · 01:35K. Rybak2696110A. Staniczek351111133
LJul 20 · 19:35K. Rybak24611431A. Staniczek4211911113
LJul 1 · 22:35K. Rybak36177751A. Staniczek48151111113
LJul 1 · 15:00K. Rybak3811311492A. Staniczek44411711113
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LAug 19 · 04:20K. Rybak3.07117791P. Gesiarz1.3391111113WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4.3711119113J. Skorupa1.18951171LAug 19 · 01:55K. Rybak6.809170J. Zelezik1.061111113LAug 19 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski1.35113117113K. Rybak2.9071171162LAug 18 · 23:55K. Rybak6.25115111072Z. Nocun1.08911712113
A. Staniczek10
LSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590LSep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.755540M. Lewczuk1.251111113LSep 11 · 24:10K. Gudzik1.401411113A. Staniczek2.7512990WSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133LSep 10 · 21:20J. Cyndera1.36811113113A. Staniczek3.0011591192LSep 10 · 20:30K. Gudzik1.4441111113A. Staniczek2.63118621LSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113WSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110
Upcoming Matches
K. Rybak
Sep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 17:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 18:30K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—Sep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak8.50M. Guzik1.05—Sep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.00A. Kubiak1.11—Sep 13 · 23:45K. Rybak3.25M. Karpiuk1.33—Sep 14 · 24:35K. Rybak8.00M. Lewczuk1.06—Sep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak5.00G. Mucha1.14—
A. Staniczek
Nothing scheduled
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