TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004452
Played Aug 25Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411115119118––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.55
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
411115119118––
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Baran 1440 vs Kwiatkowski 1540
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 60% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 50% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -1 · Kwiatkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.30 / Kwiatkowski 1.55
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13004452
Baran2.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 12 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back33% 6 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Kwiatkowski1.55
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 28 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 74 vs 102 / 23659.5%43.2%44 / 74 vs 102 / 236Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiBaran 2.30/Kwiatkowski 1.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baran won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Baran10
WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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