TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004456
Played Aug 25Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911113117117––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
911113117117––
H2H Jacek Zelezik 8–3 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Zelezik
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1569 vs Kwiatkowski 1546
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 60% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 80% vs Kwiatkowski 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +2 · Kwiatkowski +4
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.85 / Kwiatkowski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13004456
Zelezik1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 91 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 72
Kwiatkowski1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 28 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik8wins
AwayKwiatkowski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik80%4 of 5
AwayKwiatkowski20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Zelezik6Kwiatkowski4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S3Zelezik7Kwiatkowski3n = 10Zelezik took 7 of 10
S4Zelezik7Kwiatkowski0n = 7Zelezik took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikKwiatkowskiZ − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.235.2+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 608 vs 101 / 23453.5%43.2%325 / 608 vs 101 / 234Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.85/Kwiatkowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 22:35J. Zelezik3811311133K. Kwiatkowski305113111
LAug 19 · 15:00J. Zelezik142840K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 18 · 23:30J. Zelezik4471111153K. Kwiatkowski401188131
WAug 18 · 19:10J. Zelezik3961111113K. Kwiatkowski33116791
WJul 30 · 21:00J. Zelezik341112113K. Kwiatkowski2371060
WJul 30 · 16:35J. Zelezik52111812113K. Kwiatkowski4813161091
WJul 26 · 23:20J. Zelezik4611911153K. Kwiatkowski302114131
WJul 26 · 17:20J. Zelezik341211113K. Kwiatkowski2310670
WJul 5 · 23:45J. Zelezik46611711113K. Kwiatkowski3811411482
LJul 5 · 16:45J. Zelezik4514891132K. Kwiatkowski541211119113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133WSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123LSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552LSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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