TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004459
Played Aug 25Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
2.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115611711––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.43
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:12 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
911115611711––
H2H Marian Brunner 2–4 Kacper Kwiatkowski Marian Brunner has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (64%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Kwiatkowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1263 vs Kwiatkowski 1526
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 264 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 40% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 50% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -1 · Kwiatkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 2.55 / Kwiatkowski 1.43
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+10.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13004459
Brunner2.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 46 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Kwiatkowski1.43
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 28 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBrunner2wins
AwayKwiatkowski4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrunnern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKwiatkowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner2Kwiatkowski4n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6
S2Brunner3Kwiatkowski3n = 6split evenly
S3Brunner2Kwiatkowski4n = 6Kwiatkowski took 4 of 6
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricBrunnerKwiatkowskiB − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match31.233.0−1.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 566 vs 99 / 23250.4%42.7%285 / 566 vs 99 / 232Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiBrunner 2.55/Kwiatkowski 1.43
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.1%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 12 · 24:20M. Brunner269890K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 11 · 20:20M. Brunner331111113K. Kwiatkowski175840
LJul 30 · 22:35M. Brunner39311411102K. Kwiatkowski52119119123
LJul 30 · 15:00M. Brunner258980K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WJul 15 · 04:20M. Brunner381111163K. Kwiatkowski3097140
LJul 14 · 18:45M. Brunner268990K. Kwiatkowski331111113
M. Brunner10
WSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113WSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:10M. Brunner1.2111116113A. Barton3.65591151LSep 9 · 24:20K. Delikatny1.7751111113M. Brunner1.87116391LSep 8 · 23:05M. Brunner1.801111921A. Krezel1.9071311113LSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:20M. Brunner1.901211113K. Delikatny1.8010460LSep 8 · 18:45M. Brunner2.008790J. Michalik1.671111113WSep 8 · 17:30M. Brunner1.3011311113A. Barton3.40411461
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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