TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120938
Played Sep 13Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8119111113––––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched — 69.6% is still 69.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
69.6%
69.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 63 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 69.6%
63 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 7–11 Grzegorz Mucha Mateusz Karpiuk has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Mucha
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1254 vs Mucha 1422
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 20% vs Mucha 50%
Mucha
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Mucha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.25 / Mucha 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Mucha)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13120938
Karpiuk2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Mucha1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 82 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it100% 42 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk4wins
AwayMucha6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk50%3 of 6
AwayMucha75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk6Mucha4n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S2Karpiuk5Mucha5n = 10split evenly
S3Karpiuk5Mucha5n = 10split evenly
S4Karpiuk1Mucha7n = 8Mucha took 7 of 8
S5Karpiuk3Mucha3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukMuchaK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.5−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 264 vs 132 / 26344.3%50.2%117 / 264 vs 132 / 263Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaKarpiuk 2.25/Mucha 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 22:35M. Karpiuk50118138102G. Mucha538111111123
WAug 23 · 15:00M. Karpiuk525111113123G. Mucha49117615102
LAug 18 · 24:50M. Karpiuk331061161G. Mucha3712113113
WAug 17 · 19:20M. Karpiuk331111113G. Mucha196670
LAug 17 · 01:25M. Karpiuk28119531G. Mucha3631111113
WAug 16 · 19:20M. Karpiuk53111597113G. Mucha49813111162
WAug 10 · 01:25M. Karpiuk48111187113G. Mucha4157111172
LAug 9 · 19:20M. Karpiuk236890G. Mucha331111113
LAug 8 · 22:35M. Karpiuk45119114102G. Mucha49711811123
LAug 8 · 15:00M. Karpiuk4461171282G. Mucha491161110113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960
G. Mucha10
LSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.22111173G. Mucha4.006750WSep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.281111133D. Maszczynski3.5041110LSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113LSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.38A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 13 · 18:55M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 13 · 19:40M. Karpiuk3.00M. Lewczuk1.36—Sep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.25G. Mucha1.57—Sep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.00M. Lewczuk1.36—Sep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.33K. Rybak3.25—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.25A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——
G. Mucha1 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 17:20G. Mucha2.50M. Lewczuk1.50—Sep 13 · 19:20G. Mucha1.73A. Kubiak2.00—Sep 13 · 20:05G. Mucha1.14K. Rybak5.00—Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha1.57M. Karpiuk2.25—Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha4.33M. Guzik1.20—Sep 13 · 23:20G. Mucha2.50M. Lewczuk1.50—Sep 14 · 01:25G. Mucha1.73A. Kubiak2.00—Sep 14 · 02:10G. Mucha1.14K. Rybak5.00—Sep 14 · 15:00G. Mucha—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——
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