TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119852
Played Sep 13Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
4.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711116611––
Tomasz Kocik
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched — 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Tomasz Kocik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 77.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 0–5 Tomasz Kocik Grzegorz Mucha has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kocik beat Mucha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:44What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Kocik
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1416 vs Kocik 1571
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 60% vs Kocik 100%
Kocik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 70% vs Kocik 100%
Kocik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +2 · Kocik +5
Kocik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 4.00 / Kocik 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Kocik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13119852
Mucha4.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 41 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Kocik1.22
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite77% won 51 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMucha0wins
AwayKocik5wins
Kocik leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKocik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha2Kocik3n = 5Kocik took 3 of 5
S2Mucha1Kocik4n = 5Kocik took 4 of 5
S3Mucha1Kocik4n = 5Kocik took 4 of 5
S4Mucha0Kocik4n = 4Kocik took 4 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away480%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMuchaKocikM − KBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match29.041.2−12.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaKocikBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 260 vs 71 / 9650.4%74%131 / 260 vs 71 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikMucha 4.00/Kocik 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 12 · 18:55G. Mucha31851351T. Kocik44111111113
LSep 5 · 22:35G. Mucha27611191T. Kocik4111811113
LSep 5 · 15:00G. Mucha321164111T. Kocik4161111133
LAug 22 · 21:10G. Mucha26125451T. Kocik43101111113
LAug 22 · 16:50G. Mucha2988130T. Kocik371111153
G. Mucha10
WSep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.281111133D. Maszczynski3.5041110WSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113LSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113WSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113
T. Kocik10
LSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112WSep 13 · 24:10T. Kocik1.0211117183D. Maszczynski11.009611161WSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113WSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070WSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 13 · 19:20G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——Sep 13 · 20:05G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 23:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 01:25G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——Sep 14 · 02:10G. Mucha—K. Rybak——
T. Kocik
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