TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119837
Played Sep 13Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.02
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191167111816––
Dariusz Maszczynski
Away
11.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched — 92.4% is still 92.4%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
92.4%
92.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 18-16
Point 89 set 4, 18-16 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 92.4%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 10–0 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 0 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kocik beat Maszczynski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:35What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.02 (92%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-0 in 10
Kocik
Correct
gap of 10 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1571 vs Maszczynski 1198
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 373 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Maszczynski 20%
Kocik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 100% vs Maszczynski 10%
Kocik
Correct
90pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +5 · Maszczynski -1
Kocik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 92% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (20%) outperforms what odds imply (9%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.02 / Maszczynski 11.00
Signal prob.93% / 7%
Edge (Kocik)+1.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13119837
Kocik1.02
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 46 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Maszczynski11.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 66 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocik10wins
AwayMaszczynski0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKocik leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocik100%10 of 10
AwayMaszczynskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik10Maszczynski0n = 10Kocik took 10 of 10
S2Kocik9Maszczynski1n = 10Kocik took 9 of 10
S3Kocik8Maszczynski2n = 10Kocik took 8 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home880%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocikMaszczynskiK − MBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match35.822.1+13.7per matchSweeps80+83–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 96 vs 91 / 42074%21.7%71 / 96 vs 91 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.433.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.02/Maszczynski 11.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.9%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 24:10T. Kocik4711117183D. Maszczynski429611161
WSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik341112113D. Maszczynski2031070
WSep 6 · 01:45T. Kocik331111113D. Maszczynski124620
WSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik461121111113D. Maszczynski4451113872
WAug 1 · 22:55T. Kocik331111113D. Maszczynski155460
WAug 1 · 16:55T. Kocik331111113D. Maszczynski175660
WJul 25 · 21:20T. Kocik331111113D. Maszczynski174580
WJul 25 · 15:25T. Kocik331111113D. Maszczynski229850
WJul 11 · 21:44T. Kocik331111113D. Maszczynski156360
WJul 11 · 17:44T. Kocik331111113D. Maszczynski172870
T. Kocik10
WSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113WSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070WSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44119612123D. Maszczynski2.639111110102WSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070LSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113LSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120LSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1511138113D. Maszczynski4.507111181LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113
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