TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120777
Played Sep 13Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11413115119111311
Tomasz Kocik
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Tomasz Kocik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 99 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 58.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 0–1 Tomasz Kocik Krystian Gudzik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Kocik beat Gudzik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Kocik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1331 vs Kocik 1586
Kocik
Wrong
both rated, 255 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 0% vs Kocik 100%
Kocik
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 30% vs Kocik 100%
Kocik
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik -5 · Kocik +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 4.50 / Kocik 1.17
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Kocik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13120777
Gudzik4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 15 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Kocik1.17
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite77% won 51 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeGudzik0wins
AwayKocik1wins
Kocik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricGudzikKocikG − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match30.042.0−12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikKocikBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 109 vs 72 / 9750.5%74.2%55 / 109 vs 72 / 97Avg sets wonper match1.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikGudzik 4.50/Kocik 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.2%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 12 · 16:15K. Gudzik301012531T. Kocik4212101193
K. Gudzik10
LSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik1.61117481P. Gesiarz2.0861111113LSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113WSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113LSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120WSep 11 · 01:45J. Cyndera1.537117111K. Gudzik2.3811711133
T. Kocik10
WSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 13 · 24:10T. Kocik1.0211117183D. Maszczynski11.009611161WSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.501491161T. Kocik1.2816118113WSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070WSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28111111113P. Gesiarz3.50713861WSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:00T. Kocik1.3011611113J. Skorupa3.40711811WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113
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