TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120046
Played Sep 13Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141111311––––
Dariusz Maszczynski
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 51 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 77.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 9–1 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Mucha beat Maszczynski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-1 in 10
Mucha
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1414 vs Maszczynski 1174
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 240 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 60% vs Maszczynski 20%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 60% vs Maszczynski 10%
Mucha
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha -1 · Maszczynski -3
Maszczynski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.28 / Maszczynski 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Mucha)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13120046
Mucha1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 81 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it100% 41 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Maszczynski3.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 65 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMucha9wins
AwayMaszczynski1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha83.3%5 of 6
AwayMaszczynski0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha6Maszczynski4n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S2Mucha8Maszczynski2n = 10Mucha took 8 of 10
S3Mucha5Maszczynski5n = 10split evenly
S4Mucha6Maszczynski3n = 9Mucha took 6 of 9
S5Mucha3Maszczynski0n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuchaMaszczynskiMucha − MaszczynskiBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.837.0+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 262 vs 91 / 42250.4%21.6%132 / 262 vs 91 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.233.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.28/Maszczynski 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha351111133D. Maszczynski1641110
WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha45121111113D. Maszczynski38148971
WSep 5 · 23:20G. Mucha45311119113D. Maszczynski4511881172
WSep 5 · 17:20G. Mucha3611112123D. Maszczynski355911101
WAug 16 · 01:25G. Mucha45111111123D. Maszczynski371386101
WAug 15 · 19:20G. Mucha51119119113D. Maszczynski4061141182
LAug 9 · 01:25G. Mucha371110881D. Maszczynski4281211113
WAug 8 · 19:20G. Mucha4411119133D. Maszczynski399811111
WJul 5 · 24:10G. Mucha4111118113D. Maszczynski33971161
WJul 4 · 20:30G. Mucha49811811113D. Maszczynski4511711972
G. Mucha10
LSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113LSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik1.28111111113G. Mucha3.50851351WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:35G. Mucha1.671141341J. Skorupa2.1071115113WSep 12 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.0012881142G. Mucha1.731011116113WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 13 · 01:25D. Maszczynski3.40111060J. Skorupa1.301312113LSep 13 · 24:10T. Kocik1.0211117183D. Maszczynski11.009611161LSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44119612123D. Maszczynski2.639111110102WSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 20:30T. Kocik1.021112113D. Maszczynski10.5031070LSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113LSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha1.25121111113D. Maszczynski3.75148971LSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.4491111113D. Maszczynski2.63115381LSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120LSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 13 · 15:00G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 13 · 19:20G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——Sep 13 · 20:05G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 13 · 23:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 01:25G. Mucha—A. Kubiak——Sep 14 · 02:10G. Mucha—K. Rybak——
D. Maszczynski
Nothing scheduled
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