TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130202
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711611––––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.39
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
711711611––––
H2H Michal Machelski 2–4 Artur Zmijewski Michal Machelski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (67%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Zmijewski
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1330 vs Zmijewski 1455
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 60% vs Zmijewski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Zmijewski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +2 · Zmijewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (60%) is below what odds imply (72%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.80 / Zmijewski 1.39
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Zmijewski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13130202
Machelski2.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 113 of 348
Down 0–1, comes back18% 35 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Zmijewski1.39
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 53 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMachelski2wins
AwayZmijewski4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderZmijewski leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski50%2 of 4
AwayZmijewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski4Zmijewski2n = 6Machelski took 4 of 6
S2Machelski2Zmijewski4n = 6Zmijewski took 4 of 6
S3Machelski3Zmijewski3n = 6split evenly
S4Machelski1Zmijewski3n = 4Zmijewski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMachelskiZmijewskiM − ZBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match33.838.2−4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 1131 vs 82 / 13937.2%59%421 / 1131 vs 82 / 139Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiMachelski 2.80/Zmijewski 1.39
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 7 · 07:10M. Machelski26113841A. Zmijewski3741111113
LAug 30 · 23:45M. Machelski34971171A. Zmijewski4011117113
LAug 30 · 15:50M. Machelski5011818582A. Zmijewski578111611113
WAug 23 · 23:45M. Machelski341111123A. Zmijewski2486100
LAug 23 · 15:50M. Machelski187290A. Zmijewski331111113
WAug 11 · 24:00M. Machelski4111144123A. Zmijewski3851211101
M. Machelski10
WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113LSep 14 · 22:00M. Machelski3.45129551M. Warzecha1.23101111113WSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113LSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123WSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171LSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 15 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.251091171A. Zmijewski1.3012119113WSep 14 · 23:35J. Cyndera2.108650A. Zmijewski1.601111113LSep 14 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.71119119113A. Zmijewski2.0091181172LSep 14 · 21:10J. Michalik2.15111111113A. Zmijewski1.55661351WSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113LSep 14 · 19:35A. Staniczek3.35111311123A. Zmijewski1.258158101WSep 14 · 17:35J. Cyndera1.958117101A. Zmijewski1.7511711123WSep 14 · 16:50D. Maszczynski4.4010670A. Zmijewski1.151211113LSep 14 · 15:10M. Warzecha1.71913911113A. Zmijewski2.00111111772LSep 13 · 02:20A. Zmijewski1.8598150O. Jedrzejowski1.851111173
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