TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130206
Played Sep 15Finished
Adam Staniczek
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012911119711––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1012911119711––
H2H Adam Staniczek 4–2 Artur Zmijewski Artur Zmijewski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Staniczek beat Zmijewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Staniczek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniczek 1222 vs Zmijewski 1450
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 228 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniczek 60% vs Zmijewski 40%
Staniczek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniczek 30% vs Zmijewski 50%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniczek +1 · Zmijewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniczek 3.25 / Zmijewski 1.30
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Zmijewski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13130206
Staniczek3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 110 of 439
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 280
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 210
Zmijewski1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 53 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStaniczek4wins
AwayZmijewski2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderStaniczek leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniczek60%3 of 5
AwayZmijewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniczek5Zmijewski1n = 6Staniczek took 5 of 6
S2Staniczek3Zmijewski3n = 6split evenly
S3Staniczek3Zmijewski3n = 6split evenly
S4Staniczek3Zmijewski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricStaniczekZmijewskiS − ZBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match42.240.5+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniczekZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 1016 vs 81 / 13835.8%58.7%364 / 1016 vs 81 / 138Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiStaniczek 3.25/Zmijewski 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 14 · 19:35A. Staniczek47111311123A. Zmijewski418158101
LAug 19 · 22:55A. Staniczek50111211882A. Zmijewski51614911113
WAug 19 · 16:55A. Staniczek3911116113A. Zmijewski28921161
WAug 11 · 02:45A. Staniczek4111118113A. Zmijewski33691171
WAug 5 · 22:55A. Staniczek48611116143A. Zmijewski50118811122
LAug 5 · 16:55A. Staniczek28113681A. Zmijewski4071111113
A. Staniczek10
LSep 15 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.2791111113A. Staniczek3.35114871WSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113LSep 14 · 21:35J. Cyndera1.365111110123A. Staniczek2.75119712102LSep 14 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.21911118113A. Staniczek3.6511871162WSep 14 · 19:35A. Staniczek3.35111311123A. Zmijewski1.258158101WSep 14 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.313111041A. Staniczek1.5011612113LSep 14 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.461111113A. Staniczek2.425350LSep 14 · 15:35J. Cyndera1.5011911113A. Staniczek2.35511691LSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590LSep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.755540M. Lewczuk1.251111113
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 14 · 23:35J. Cyndera2.108650A. Zmijewski1.601111113LSep 14 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.71119119113A. Zmijewski2.0091181172LSep 14 · 21:10J. Michalik2.15111111113A. Zmijewski1.55661351WSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113LSep 14 · 19:35A. Staniczek3.35111311123A. Zmijewski1.258158101WSep 14 · 17:35J. Cyndera1.958117101A. Zmijewski1.7511711123WSep 14 · 16:50D. Maszczynski4.4010670A. Zmijewski1.151211113LSep 14 · 15:10M. Warzecha1.71913911113A. Zmijewski2.00111111772LSep 13 · 02:20A. Zmijewski1.8598150O. Jedrzejowski1.851111173
Upcoming Matches
A. Staniczek
A. Zmijewski
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