TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13126051
Played Sep 14Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
3.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911511511––
Miroslaw Warzecha
Away
1.23
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:42 and never touched — 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Warzecha to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1210911511511––
H2H Michal Machelski 14–68 Miroslaw Warzecha Michal Machelski has won 14 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.23 (74%)
Warzecha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-68 in 82
Warzecha
Correct
gap of 54 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1319 vs Warzecha 1545
Warzecha
Correct
both rated, 226 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Warzecha 80%
Warzecha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Warzecha 80%
Warzecha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +1 · Warzecha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Warzecha) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 3.45 / Warzecha 1.23
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Warzecha)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13126051
Machelski3.45
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 113 of 348
Down 0–1, comes back18% 35 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Warzecha1.23
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite73% won 347 of 477
Up 2–0, closes it97% 200 of 207
Up 1–0, closes it89% 261 of 294
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski1wins
AwayWarzecha9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWarzecha leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski25%1 of 4
AwayWarzecha100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski4Warzecha6n = 10Warzecha took 6 of 10
S2Machelski2Warzecha8n = 10Warzecha took 8 of 10
S3Machelski4Warzecha6n = 10Warzecha took 6 of 10
S4Machelski0Warzecha8n = 8Warzecha took 8 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiWarzechaM − WBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.341.3−8.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiWarzechaBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 1141 vs 853 / 120437.1%70.9%423 / 1141 vs 853 / 1204Avg sets wonper match1.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WarzechaMachelski 3.45/Warzecha 1.23
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80%
Warzecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Warzecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski196670M. Warzecha331111113
LAug 27 · 24:20M. Machelski28281171M. Warzecha3711114113
WAug 26 · 20:20M. Machelski541191211113M. Warzecha49711101382
LAug 13 · 24:20M. Machelski321111371M. Warzecha4213711113
LAug 12 · 20:20M. Machelski2917390M. Warzecha411911113
LAug 6 · 03:05M. Machelski33117781M. Warzecha4181111113
LAug 5 · 21:05M. Machelski42115115102M. Warzecha47411911123
LJul 27 · 22:00M. Machelski337115101M. Warzecha4211811123
LJul 26 · 01:10M. Machelski33681181M. Warzecha3911116113
LJul 25 · 19:10M. Machelski30114961M. Warzecha4291111113
M. Machelski10
WSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113LSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123WSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171LSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172WSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261LSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113
M. Warzecha10
WSep 14 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.21911118113A. Staniczek3.6511871162WSep 14 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1291111133D. Maszczynski4.801168111LSep 14 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.417311101P. Gesiarz2.5511115123WSep 14 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.54791111133J. Cyndera2.25111155112WSep 14 · 15:10M. Warzecha1.71913911113A. Zmijewski2.00111111772WSep 10 · 04:00W. Stechly4.0811411782M. Warzecha1.20511511113WSep 10 · 03:20A. Staniczek3.608640M. Warzecha1.221111113WSep 10 · 02:40M. Warzecha1.47111145113K. Gudzik2.5066111182WSep 10 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.41611411113J. Skorupa2.5511311252LSep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun2.15116811113M. Warzecha1.6191111682
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